Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 3:43:21 GMT -5
Vladimir Putin - a man recently hailed as a "genius" by Donald Trump - managed in a few weeks to revitalize NATO, unite a divided West, turn Ukraine's little-known president into a global hero, destroy Russia's economy, and cement his legacy as a war criminal. But how did he make so many miscalculations? To answer this question, you need to understand the power and information ecosystems that exist around dictators. For more than a decade, I have studied and interviewed despots from around the globe. In my scholarly research, I have repeatedly encountered a stubborn myth, that of the strongman, the rational, calculating despot who can play the long game because he doesn't need to worry about pesky polls or angry voters.
Read also: Caught with a rifle and Brazil Telegram Number Data cartridges in the car, the 18-year-old is arrested in Saranda Zelensky begs the West for weapons from the front line This view suggests that our elected leaders are no match for the tyrant who sees himself in power for the next decade instead of worrying about next year's elections. But reality does not match this rosy theory. Autocrats like Putin eventually fall prey to what can be called the "dictator trap". The strategies they use to stay in power tend to cause their eventual downfall. Instead of being long-term planners, many of them make catastrophic mistakes in a very short time. So the kinds of mistakes that would likely have been avoided in democratic systems.
They only listen to the serviles around them and take bad advice from them. They misunderstand their own population, and don't see imminent threats until it's too late. And unlike elected leaders who, after leaving office, start reading books, give lectures at universities, that is, have the splendid lifestyle of a statesman, many dictators who make wrong calculations leave office in a coffin, a scenario that makes them even more aggressive in trying to stay in power. Despots sow the "seeds" of their demise early on, when they first face the dilemma between allowing freedom of expression or maintaining an iron grip on power. Since coming to power, suppressing dissenting voices and imprisoning opponents is often rational from a dictator's point of view.
Read also: Caught with a rifle and Brazil Telegram Number Data cartridges in the car, the 18-year-old is arrested in Saranda Zelensky begs the West for weapons from the front line This view suggests that our elected leaders are no match for the tyrant who sees himself in power for the next decade instead of worrying about next year's elections. But reality does not match this rosy theory. Autocrats like Putin eventually fall prey to what can be called the "dictator trap". The strategies they use to stay in power tend to cause their eventual downfall. Instead of being long-term planners, many of them make catastrophic mistakes in a very short time. So the kinds of mistakes that would likely have been avoided in democratic systems.
They only listen to the serviles around them and take bad advice from them. They misunderstand their own population, and don't see imminent threats until it's too late. And unlike elected leaders who, after leaving office, start reading books, give lectures at universities, that is, have the splendid lifestyle of a statesman, many dictators who make wrong calculations leave office in a coffin, a scenario that makes them even more aggressive in trying to stay in power. Despots sow the "seeds" of their demise early on, when they first face the dilemma between allowing freedom of expression or maintaining an iron grip on power. Since coming to power, suppressing dissenting voices and imprisoning opponents is often rational from a dictator's point of view.